Donald Trump is the underdog in Tuesday’s presidential election. But he still has a shot of winning, at least if you believe the FiveThirtyEight forecast. So what would his path to Electoral College victory look like?
Essentially, the likeliest way Trump can top 270 electoral votes appears to be by:
1) Holding the lean Trump swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona
2) Winning the toss-up states of Florida and North Carolina
3) Winning either one more big state like Pennsylvania or Michigan, or multiple smaller remaining contests.
Let’s walk through it. Trump starts off with 180 or so likely electoral votes, from the following (red) states:
Trump’s shakiest states here appear to be Georgia, where polls have been a bit close, and Utah, where independent candidate Evan McMullin could conceivably scramble things. But he’s still considered a solid favorite in both.
So in the remaining contests, Trump needs put together a combination of 90 or more electoral votes to get to 270. Here’s how he could do it.
How Trump could get very close to a victory
First, Trump almost surely has to win Iowa (six electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes), the two swing states where polls have shown him strongest. He’d also probably have to hold on to Arizona (11 electoral votes), a traditionally red state that the Clinton campaign is hoping high Hispanic turnout can swing into their column. Those states would put him up to 215 electoral votes.
Second, Trump also almost surely has to win the toss-up state of Florida (29 electoral votes). The state is so big that, should Trump fail to win it, he’d basically have to run the table in the remaining toss-up states and win several sizable states in Clinton’s “firewall.” A victory in Florida wouldn’t be enough for Trump to win, though — he’d be up to 244 electoral votes at this point.
He’d probably also have to win another pure toss-up state, North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Doing so would get him up at 259 electoral votes — oh-so-close to victory, but not quite at that magic number of 270.
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To get himself over the finish line, then, Trump would have to find 11 more electoral college votes somewhere — and he’d have to do it by breaking into Hillary Clinton’s “firewall” (the six state combination of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado).